In recent years, many new trends have emerged in the field of solid waste treatment in cities and towns in China: waste classification has moved from key breakthroughs to full progress, waste incineration has continued to develop rapidly, and the treatment of kitchen waste, construction waste, hazardous waste, and municipal sludge has become more and more important. The integrated model of environmental sanitation and the waste management plan of villages and towns have achieved initial results, the demand for treatment of old waste landfills has increased, the application of cement kiln co-processing has been expanded, waste pyrolysis and gasification and biochemical treatment technologies have gradually become hot spots, and the construction of waste-free cities will expand the pilot In terms of scope, the planning and construction of solid waste treatment industrial parks has become a hot topic, the development prospects of advanced equipment such as new energy sanitation vehicles are promising, the mid-to-long-term trend of national advancement and retirement will continue, and green and low-carbon technologies are ushering in an important policy period. Under the background of carbon neutrality, my country’s urban solid waste treatment field is facing a new period of development opportunities.
1. Garbage classification has been upgraded to a national system
1. General Secretary Xi Jinping attaches great importance to the classification of domestic waste, and has given important instructions more than 10 times. He pointed out: Waste classification is a new fashion leading low-carbon life and an important manifestation of the level of social civilization. It must be based on the rule of law and promoted by the government. The system of garbage classification with public participation, urban and rural planning, and local conditions should strengthen scientific management, form a long-term mechanism, and promote habit formation.
2. The “Several Opinions on Further Promoting the Classification of Domestic Waste” jointly issued by the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and other 12 departments require: to build a long-term mechanism, establish scientific concepts, carry out classification guidance, strengthen the management of the whole chain, and further promote the classification of domestic waste.
3. The new version of the Solid Waste Law is clear: the state implements a domestic waste classification system, requiring units, households and individuals that generate domestic waste to perform the obligation of reducing the source of domestic waste and sorting and placing them in accordance with the law, and bear the responsibility of the generators of domestic waste.
4. More than 10 departments, including the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, issued relevant documents requesting the comprehensive promotion of domestic waste classification across the country.
5. The garbage classification market is very large. According to the participating links, it can be divided into front-end participation mode (cleaning and release, collection links), mid-end participation mode (transportation and transfer links), end-end participation mode (resource utilization and disposal links), and environmental sanitation. Integrated mode (multiple links in the whole process), etc.
6. The in-depth advancement of waste classification will bring about major changes in the entire waste collection, transportation and treatment system. This will undoubtedly be the case for local governments under the background of declining ability to pay or private enterprises under the background of increasing pressure to survive. New challenges and opportunities.
7. The ten-year market opportunity is 400 billion yuan, and the industry is hot ★★★★★
2. Incineration power generation will continue its rapid development trend
1. The improvement of pollution discharge standards, the implementation of environmental compensation measures, the full implementation of waste classification, the continuous strengthening of supervision, the active promotion of local governments, the increase of high-standard waste incineration plants, and the opening of cross-administrative waste transportation, are gradually solving the difficulties in the implementation of waste incineration power generation projects The “neighbor avoidance” dilemma.
2. The national industry, price, finance, planning, technology, environmental protection, energy and low-carbon policies are affected by the short-term impact of on-grid tariff adjustments, but they are generally beneficial to promote and guarantee the medium and long-term development of the waste incineration power generation industry.
3. Mature business models, stable investment returns, and scarce project resources have resulted in the formation of a “staking horse and enclosure” type of market competition among core companies, and the phenomenon of “five extensions”, that is, from large and medium cities to small Urban extension extends from the city to the county and town, from the first phase to the second and third phase, from a single project to an industrial park, and from garbage treatment to solid waste co-processing.
4. In the future, the waste incineration power generation industry may show a development trend of “Four Lows and Four Highs”. The “Four Lows” means that the average annual increment is reduced, the average scale is reduced, the pollutant emissions are reduced, and the carbon dioxide emissions are reduced. The standards are improved, the operation level is improved, the power generation efficiency is improved, and the industry concentration is improved.
5. The “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan” has formed a “555″ industrial structure (a scale of more than 500,000 tons/day, a proportion of more than 50%, and more than 500 projects). The planned target of the “14th Five-Year Plan” is about 800,000 tons/day With a scale of about 65% and a proportion of about 65%, the waste incineration power generation industry will still have a lot of room for development in the future.
6. The ten-year market opportunity is 250 billion yuan, and the industry is hot ★★★★★.
3. Food waste treatment is facing a new period of opportunity
1. According to the new version of the national standard “Domestic Waste Classification Mark”, kitchen waste refers to household kitchen waste, food waste and other kitchen waste.
2. It is predicted that the output of household kitchen waste is about 110,000 tons/day (estimated according to the actual separation rate), the output of kitchen waste is about 90,000 tons/day, and the output of other kitchen waste is about 50,000 tons/day. The total waste output is approximately 250,000 tons/day.
3. Through the exploration and practice in the past few years, the technical route of kitchen waste treatment with anaerobic digestion technology as the mainstay, aerobic fertilizer technology as the supplement, and biochemical machinery and insect method as the supplement has been basically formed. The first two are mainly It is a centralized processing mode, and the latter two are mainly distributed processing modes.
4. Domestic waste classification has been expanded from 46 key cities to prefecture-level cities and above. Among them, 35% recycling rate and 65% resource utilization rate are hard indicators for key assessment. Food waste treatment projects have been released rapidly in various places in recent years. , But also encountered many bottlenecks that need to be resolved urgently.
5. Relevant policies issued by relevant national departments and local governments at all levels support the development of food waste treatment and resource utilization; the continuous improvement of technology, construction, and operation levels can support the further development of food waste treatment projects.
6. The amount of kitchen waste is large and wide. It is the focus of public attention, the focus of assessment of waste classification, and the weak link of the waste treatment system. The current number of projects and processing capacity are far from meeting actual needs, and it has core competitiveness. Of enterprises will have greater room for development in the future.
7. The ten-year market opportunity is 200 billion yuan, and the industry is hot ★★★★.
4. There are still big opportunities for landfill construction and governance
1. The landfill has the characteristics of strong adaptability and low operating cost. In the future, it will still be one of the main methods of waste treatment in small and medium-sized cities, central and western regions, new urbanization areas, and urban-rural integration mode. The latest national policy is also clear: For areas that do not have the construction of incineration facilities for the time being, planning and construction of landfills that meet the standards can be planned.
2. As the underpinning guarantee and ultimate outlet for urban waste disposal, and the current cost-effective fly ash landfill method, waste landfills and fly ash landfills will still occupy an important position in large and medium-sized cities in the future.
3. The phenomenon of “incineration, integration, parkization, ecologicalization, and development” in the upgrading and transformation of waste landfills may show a gradual increase in the next few years, and the shortage of landfills will become increasingly scarce. It is expected to become a hot resource that the capital market is optimistic about.
4. The national policy encourages “zero landfill” of primary waste in large and medium cities. The direct entry of primary waste into sanitary landfills without classification and pretreatment will gradually be restricted, while special waste such as fly ash, residues, sludge and hazardous waste will be gradually restricted. Landfills will show an upward trend.
5. A large number of old and informal landfills are facing pressures and demands such as closure, upgrading, repair, relocation, and redevelopment. The comprehensive remediation of landfills urgently needs the strong support of advanced technologies and innovative models. Bring greater market development opportunities.
6.The ten-year market opportunity is 150 billion yuan, and the industry is hot ★★★★.
5. The hazardous waste treatment market is facing a window period
1. In 2020, the amount of hazardous waste generated in the country will exceed 80 million tons, but less than 40% can achieve centralized harmless disposal and resource utilization. Opportunities and challenges coexist.
2. At the national level, industry management systems such as hazardous waste catalogs, pollution prevention and control plans, pollution control standards and technical specifications have been gradually improved.
3. Hazardous waste involves 50 categories and 467 kinds, mainly including waste acid, waste alkali, smelting waste, waste mineral oil, etc. from chemical industry and smelting, as well as incineration of fly ash, medical waste, etc. It has the characteristics of multiple types, multiple output, one-to-many, multiple small businesses, multiple external changes, multiple internal risks, multiple intersections, multiple barriers, multiple gaps, multiple opportunities, etc.
4. With the occurrence of multiple explosions in chemical companies and the increase in environmental protection inspections, the proportion of closures, parks, transformations or transformations of small and medium-sized chemical plants has increased significantly. These changes have brought many problems to the development of the industry. Certainty.
5. After the outbreak of the new crown epidemic, relevant national departments and local governments at all levels have attached great importance to medical waste treatment. In recent years, a large number of medical waste treatment projects have been released.
6. In recent years, large companies and capital have begun to intervene in the field of hazardous waste treatment, and the industry may enter the stage of shuffling and restructuring. Several leading companies with an annual processing capacity of more than one million tons are emerging. At the same time, the hazardous waste market is showing a situation where both output and prices are falling, which has caused a greater impact on the profitability of hazardous waste projects. The former “profiteering” industry is facing a window period of “undercurrent surging”.
7. The ten-year market opportunity is 300 billion yuan, and the industry is hot ★★★★.
6. Sludge disposal is in a period of rapid development
1. It is predicted that in 2020, the annual output of wet sludge with 80% moisture content in the country will be about 60 million tons.
2. Compared with the urban sewage treatment rate exceeding 90%, as well as the upgrading and upgrading of sewage treatment, the rapid advancement of sewage disinfection, four types of water, reclaimed water, etc., the sludge innocuous disposal rate is still below 50%, and the level of development is seriously lagging behind .
3. The phenomenon of “heavy water and light mud” has attracted wide attention in the society and has attracted the attention of relevant departments. The latest national policy clearly requires that the difficulties in sludge disposal should be solved, harmless, promote resource utilization, and build a new sewage treatment plant. There must be a clear way of sludge disposal.
4. The sludge can be treated in a harmless manner by thermal hydrolysis, anaerobic digestion, aerobic fermentation, drying, etc., and it can also be intensively built with kitchen waste, kitchen waste and other urban organic waste treatment facilities. Or the use of resources in a park-based way.
5. After the sludge is harmlessly treated and meets relevant standards, it can be used for land improvement, wasteland afforestation, seedling tending, landscaping and agricultural utilization.
6. Large and medium-sized cities with scarce land resources can adopt models such as “biomass utilization + dry incineration”. Dry incineration includes separate incineration and coordinated incineration. There are a large number of domestic waste incineration plants, thermal power plants, cement kilns, etc. The co-incineration of the sludge after drying provides a variety of ways.
7. During the “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan” period, great progress has been made in the harmless disposal of sludge. The next ten years will still be a period of rapid development of the sludge disposal industry, and the gradual maturity of waste and sludge co-processing technology will also give Waste incineration power generation companies bring new opportunities.
8. The 10-year market opportunity is 200 billion yuan, and the industry is hot.
Seven, construction waste recycling has a long way to go
1. In 2019, the annual output of construction waste in my country has exceeded 2 billion tons, and it is increasing at an annual rate of about 10%.
2. At present, landfill disposal still accounts for more than 75% of the total, sorting scrap metal, etc., less than 5%, and producing recycled bricks, etc., accounting for about 15%. The basic status quo is large production, low utilization, backward technology, The pollution is serious and there are many hidden dangers, but the market demand is great, and the contradiction between supply and demand is quite prominent.
3. Due to the need to go through multiple links such as sorting, crushing, mixing, maintenance and testing, the recycled aggregates, sand powder and roadbed materials produced by construction waste are more expensive than products processed from natural materials. The quality of the product is not necessarily better, and the outlet of the product is also unstable due to many restricted factors.
4. The main bottlenecks in the development of the construction waste recycling industry at this stage include: difficult land selection, difficult raw material assurance, difficult waste classification, high processing costs, low product quality, unstable market demand, and lower return on investment than the market average. As a result, the enthusiasm and sense of gain of some enterprises to participate are not high.
5. To resolve the contradiction between supply and demand, we must first support industrial development. For this reason, it is urgent to increase support at the national level, including providing financial subsidies for enterprises, setting up industrial development funds, and providing tax and fee concessions for enterprises.
6. Future development includes speeding up the construction of regulations and standard systems for the resource utilization of construction waste, advancing the pilot and promotion of the resource utilization of construction waste, and exploring various forms of market-oriented operation mechanisms and investment and financing models.
7. The ten-year market opportunity is 150 billion, and the industry is hot.
8. Waste treatment in villages and towns urgently needs to build a long-term mechanism
1. In November 2014, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and others launched a five-year special treatment of rural domestic waste, requiring that 90% of the country’s domestic waste be treated by the end of 2020, basically reversing the messy and poor rural environment, and forming a long-term improvement in rural domestic waste management Effective mechanism.
2. In November 2015, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and others issued the “Guiding Opinions on Comprehensively Promoting Rural Waste Management”, which put forward the “five goals” for rural waste management: complete facilities and equipment, mature treatment technology, and stable Cleaning team, long-term financial guarantee, and complete supervision system.
3. At the end of 2020, about 80% of household garbage in villages and towns will be treated, and about 20% of village and town garbage has not been treated at all, and the harmless treatment rate is lower than 35%. The contradiction in the treatment of garbage in villages and towns is still very prominent. The problem of fund guarantee in the above-mentioned “five goals” is still only a goal.
4. Insufficient investment is the main factor restricting garbage disposal in villages and towns. While increasing financial support, it is necessary to build a multiple investment mechanism of “government guidance, market operation, and social participation” to solve the contradiction between capital demand and insufficient investment. At this stage, it can only be carried out gradually in the form of slicing pilots.
5. Village and town waste treatment modes include: urban-rural integration mode, on-site treatment mode, co-processing mode, etc. Reasonable treatment modes and appropriate treatment technologies are selected according to local conditions and organically integrated. This is the technical path to implement village and town waste treatment, but This technological path requires financial support.
6. The large amount and wide range of incremental garbage and long-term accumulation of stock garbage, plus ash waste, plastic agricultural film, livestock and poultry manure and crop straw, make the task of treating garbage in villages and towns quite arduous and onerous. At the moment of inadequacy, companies can only follow the national policy, where the funds are invested, and the company can do it.
7.The 10-year market opportunity is 200 billion yuan, and the industry is hot.
9. Parkization and collaborative processing are current industry hotspots
1. The “14th Five-Year Plan” clearly requires that, based on the principles of intensive, high-efficiency, environmental protection and safety, actively promote the construction model of intravenous industrial parks, and explore the construction of collections of domestic waste, construction waste, medical waste, hazardous waste, agricultural and forestry waste, etc. A comprehensive disposal base for solid waste.
2. The construction of the industrial park will help optimize the project layout, occupy less land resources, reduce the pressure on site selection, exert the effect of co-processing, and improve the level of intensive management. It can promote the sharing of process equipment, resource and energy sharing of various processing facilities in the park. Co-governance of environmental pollution and shared responsibility and risk to reduce the “neighbor and avoid” effect and social stability risks.
3. Co-processing of solid waste and comprehensive utilization of resources in the industrial park, combined with the organic integration of eco-pastoral and photovoltaic power generation and other green and low-carbon industries, may become one of the important models for the planning and construction of industrial parks in the future.
4. Cement kiln co-processing of domestic waste has received increasing attention from the industry. With the improvement of policy standards and the improvement of process technology, it is gradually being re-understood by everyone, and it may show a further development trend in the future.
5. The pilot construction of “waste-free city” from 16+ to 100+ will bring new development models and new development opportunities to the construction and collaborative processing of solid waste industrial parks, and this is a systematic and overall situation. Development opportunities.
6. The ten-year market opportunity is 300 billion yuan, and the industry is hot.
10. Corporate mergers and acquisitions are changing the market landscape
1. Economic transformation will have a long-term impact on the industrial development and market competition in the field of solid waste treatment. “National advancement and civil retreat” is at least a medium-term development trend. A mixed economy dominated by central enterprises or state-owned enterprises, due to policy support and mechanisms Flexible or will face better development opportunities.
2. As the valuation level of solid waste companies in the capital market is still at a medium to high level, with the establishment of the Science and Technology Innovation Board, the listing and financing of solid waste companies will continue to be a hot spot, and the listing of core companies will further accelerate, but at the same time, funding And the risk of the market will also begin to release.
3. In the medium and long term, more powerful solid waste companies will realize the extension of the industrial chain and the expansion of business scale through market expansion, business integration, vertical or horizontal mergers, etc., but due to fundamental changes in the past two years In the short term, the speed of expansion will slow down, and many private enterprises with transformation pressure or capital needs may change their “runway” and turn to central enterprises or state-owned enterprises.
4. PPP business model, Internet + model, large solid waste model, sanitation integration model, environmental trusteeship model, etc., may change the existing pattern of solid waste segmentation. From the practical effect, these models are double-edged swords. In the future, the situation where some people are happy and some are sad will continue.
5. The ten-year market opportunity is 150 billion, and the industry is hot.
11. Solid waste treatment is inseparable from advanced equipment
1. The advanced environmental protection equipment industry plays an important role as a solid waste treatment carrier and is also strongly supported by relevant national policies.
2. The key development directions of solid waste treatment equipment include: construction waste wet sorting equipment, contaminated sediment treatment and repair equipment, waste efficient anaerobic digestion equipment, waste incineration and flue gas efficient deacidification equipment, incineration flue gas dioxin and High-efficiency heavy metal absorption equipment, waste incineration fly ash resource treatment equipment, waste sorting and delivery and sorting collection and transportation equipment, kitchen waste treatment and resource utilization equipment, etc.
3. The national policy encourages leading companies in environmental protection equipment to develop into integrated service providers that integrate system design, equipment manufacturing, engineering construction, commissioning and maintenance, and operation and management, and encourage small and medium-sized enterprises to focus on product specialization, intensive research and development, service characteristics, and business formats. The development of new-style “specialization, special new” direction.
4. The advanced environmental protection equipment industry should strive to achieve “innovation leading, five modernizations simultaneously”, “five modernizations” namely: international vision, standardized manufacturing, intelligent upgrade, complete series, branding strategy.
5. At present, the development of my country’s solid waste treatment industry has great demand for advanced equipment manufacturing, but the manufacturing capacity and technical level of advanced solid waste treatment equipment are still insufficient.
6. Equipment manufacturing enterprises should adapt to the development of the situation, further optimize the product structure of solid waste equipment, expand product segmentation, and focus on the development of a batch of advanced and efficient intelligent, energy-saving, and low-carbon solid waste products based on environmental governance costs and operating efficiency. Waste treatment equipment.
7. The ten-year market opportunity is 400 billion yuan, and the industry is hot ★★★★
Post time: Jul-16-2021